The Truth About Due Dates: What Families in Bristol & Somerset Need to Know
If you're expecting a baby in Bristol or Somerset, you've probably been given a due date. But how accurate is it? And what does the latest evidence say about going past your due date? Let's dive into the research so you can make informed decisions about your pregnancy.
How Are Due Dates Calculated?
Traditionally, due dates are calculated using Naegele’s Rule, which assumes a 28-day menstrual cycle and predicts birth at 40 weeks from the first day of your last period. However, many people don’t have textbook cycles, making this method unreliable (Evidence Based Birth, 2020).
A more accurate method is early ultrasound dating, particularly in the first trimester. Studies show ultrasounds can provide a better (but still not accurate, with an error margin of up to TWO weeks) estimate of your baby's arrival than relying on menstrual cycle dates alone (American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, 2017).
How Long is a "Normal" Pregnancy?
Pregnancy length naturally varies! Here's how experts categorize different stages of full-term pregnancy:
Early Term: 37 weeks - 38 weeks 6 days
Full Term: 39 weeks - 40 weeks 6 days
Late Term: 41 weeks - 41 weeks 6 days
Post Term: 42 weeks and beyond (American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, 2013)
The idea that pregnancy automatically ends at 40 weeks is outdated. In fact, most first-time parents go into labour naturally during their 41st week gestation (Evidence Based Birth, 2020).
Does Going Past 40 Weeks Increase Risks?
One concern about going past your due date is the risk of stillbirth, though the overall risk remains low. Here’s what the numbers look like:
39 weeks: 4 stillbirths per 10,000 pregnancies
40 weeks: 7 stillbirths per 10,000 pregnancies
41 weeks: 17 stillbirths per 10,000 pregnancies
42 weeks: 32 stillbirths per 10,000 pregnancies (Muglu et al., 2019)
These numbers highlight why many care providers offer induction after 41 weeks. However, the decision to induce should always be based on individual circumstances, not just a number on the calendar.
What Should Families in Bristol & Somerset Do?
If you're pregnant in Bristol, Somerset, or North Somerset, it's important to have open conversations with your midwife or doctor. Ask about:
✔️ Your individual risks and where the research for that information is
✔️ The pros and cons of induction at 41+ weeks
✔️ Alternative methods to check your and your baby's health if you do not want to be induced
At New Birth Club, we support Bristol & Somerset families with birth education, hypnobirthing, and doula services to help you feel empowered about your choices.
Final Thoughts
Due dates are just estimates—not deadlines! Many pregnancies naturally go beyond 40 weeks, and the key is understanding your options. Whether you're planning a home birth in Somerset, a midwife-led unit in Bristol, or a hospital birth, knowledge is power.
If you want support navigating your pregnancy journey, get in touch with New Birth Club today! We offer birth preparation, postnatal support, and hypnobirthing classes across Bristol, Somerset, and North Somerset.
📩 Contact us today to learn more about how we can support you!
Sources:
Evidence Based Birth. (2020). "Evidence on Due Dates." Retrieved from evidencebasedbirth.com
American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists. (2017). "Ultrasound in Pregnancy."
Muglu, J., et al. (2019). "Stillbirth risks by gestational age." The BMJ.